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Stop saying the play-offs are a lottery


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They're not. Although Sky would have you believe that they are, along with penalty shootouts.

 

There's every reason to believe that we are strong enough both physically and mentally to go up.

 

UTB.

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Completely agree with you Trapper, they are now the most important games of the season.

 

You hear of players not being in the right mind set and to watch out for the "in-form" team in the play offs (in his case probably Ipswich) as they have had time to settle into the whole situation.

 

We have (or should have probably) an away and home game to play before hopefully playing at a neutral venue (or is that really another away game).

 

It would seem that in all likelihood that we will get Derby (as things stand at this time) and therefore each game to be played on it's merit and forget that Derby are due a win, well it's two legs and the aggregate decides who will play in the final.

 

I would expect and demand that the very best from Boro is seen as promotion is in our hands and there is no time for reflection for the past 46 games

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They are a lottery. That doesn't mean that we aren't strong enough to go up or that we shouldn't believe we're capable of it. It just means that everyone else finishing in the play offs can say the same thing.

 

Over the last 20 years there's been a slightly higher frequency of the third place side going all the way through and being promoted but it doesn't seem to be a huge advantage.

 

3rd - 7 times

4th - 3 times

5th - 5 times

6th - 6 times.

 

So basically the stats show that once you get to the play offs then pretty much anyone has a shot at promotion, hence the reason people refer to it as a lottery as the best team over the season doesn't necessarily make it through.

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They are a lottery. That doesn't mean that we aren't strong enough to go up or that we shouldn't believe we're capable of it. It just means that everyone else finishing in the play offs can say the same thing.

 

Over the last 20 years there's been a slightly higher frequency of the third place side going all the way through and being promoted but it doesn't seem to be a huge advantage.

 

3rd - 7 times

4th - 3 times

5th - 5 times

6th - 6 times.

 

So basically the stats show that once you get to the play offs then pretty much anyone has a shot at promotion, hence the reason people refer to it as a lottery as the best team over the season doesn't necessarily make it through.

 

Basically this, it is a completely unfair system that means that the 3rd best team in the league over a season has roughly the same chance to go up as the 6th best team in the league. I know it probably seems like I'm just saying that because it looks like we'll be 3rd but I have always believed it's a vastly unfair system that was dreamt up purely for TV purposes.

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It IS a lottery  and in no way a reflection of the season as a whole  . true its a enjoyable spectacle for the neutrals  and a  money spinner for those who dictate the formats theses days  and  for the ONE fortunate team from the 4 involved its a brilliant day out at wembley with super rich rewards  but its overall system has a great deal of unfairness  to the team that finishes 3rd as compared to 6th.  i cant remember the exact details but there was one occasion (might be wrong but seem to think it was palace) where the 3rd place team missed out on automatic promotion  by a tiny margin and finished miles ahead oh 4th but didnt progress via the play offs and maybe didnt even make the final .  I remember feeling  massively sorry for Derby last season  with what happened in the final and  any honest person cant argue that they were victims of this system .  

apart from it all being down to 2/3 sigular performances brought back to an even start its can also be dictated by injuries and bans to any team unfortunate with the timing .

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Basically this, it is a completely unfair system that means that the 3rd best team in the league over a season has roughly the same chance to go up as the 6th best team in the league. I know it probably seems like I'm just saying that because it looks like we'll be 3rd but I have always believed it's a vastly unfair system that was dreamt up purely for TV purposes.

 

I understand what you're saying but I like the play offs.  I don't think they were introduced for TV purposes though as they started in the 80's and they weren't televised at all.  The theory behind it was that it kept the season alive for more teams, which in turn leads to a more interesting season as you have more teams with something to play for right up until the end.  I'd argue that this is a good thing and it clearly has been successful at doing this.

 

6th place should be 5 times rather than 6, I hit the wrong number by mistake and I just realised.  

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Lottery is probably the wrong word for me, as that suggests it's all random with no outside influence. There is usually an element of luck/good fortune involved, but surely you can say that about 99% of matches?

 

I think the random aspect of it is that you're almost as likely to make it through if you finish 6th than if you finish 3rd.  So being the best of the rest over the course of 46 games doesn't necessarily mean you will be the best of the rest over the course of a few games in the play offs.  It doesn't mean that the games are random, it means that generally the sides are fairly evenly matched.

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Our form is just as good if not better than the other team in the playoffs with us.

 

The number of times the 5th and 6th teams win is because they may not of been the best team over the season but they are the form team going into the payoffs. They've had a late charge into the playoffs but the 3rd/4th team have dropped away from the autos.

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Well it depends on what you mean by 'just as good'. We've lost more games in the last ten than any of the other sides in the top eight. We've won the same amount of Norwich in that time and more than the sides below us but those defeats might be an issue when it comes to play off football.

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I enjoy the play offs, but I do feel there should be a little bit of weighting to it so that the 3rd 4th team have a better Chance than 5th 6th. Maybe if an aggregate draw they go through rather than extra time for example. Or even just not two legs and they get the game at home.

 

I just feel 5/6th should have to show a little bit more in the play offs than the 3/4th as they have shown over the season they are more consistent rather than it just being down to a few games. League position never lies which is why the best team always wins the league, however the best team rarely wins cup competitions.. Hence why it's unfair that essentially a "cup team" gets a league promotion

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I enjoy the play offs, but I do feel there should be a little bit of weighting to it so that the 3rd 4th team have a better Chance than 5th 6th. Maybe if an aggregate draw they go through rather than extra time for example. Or even just not two legs and they get the game at home.

 

I just feel 5/6th should have to show a little bit more in the play offs than the 3/4th as they have shown over the season they are more consistent rather than it just being down to a few games. League position never lies which is why the best team always wins the league, however the best team rarely wins cup competitions.. Hence why it's unfair that essentially a "cup team" gets a league promotion

 

pretty much what id like to see .. although it never will be .  but somwhere there might be a solution to giving the 3rd placed team down to the 6th in some sort of  advantage system as having the second leg at home is paltry really .  but what can you do in all honesty,  you cant have a goal start  , you cant have an extra player on the pitch  nor can you have larger goals to  shoot at  lol . 

PS this is not just sour grapes as we will probably be 3rd  id have the same misgivings  wherever we finished  .

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Basically this, it is a completely unfair system that means that the 3rd best team in the league over a season has roughly the same chance to go up as the 6th best team in the league. I know it probably seems like I'm just saying that because it looks like we'll be 3rd but I have always believed it's a vastly unfair system that was dreamt up purely for TV purposes.

 

I understand what you're saying but I like the play offs.  I don't think they were introduced for TV purposes though as they started in the 80's and they weren't televised at all.  The theory behind it was that it kept the season alive for more teams, which in turn leads to a more interesting season as you have more teams with something to play for right up until the end.  I'd argue that this is a good thing and it clearly has been successful at doing this.

 

6th place should be 5 times rather than 6, I hit the wrong number by mistake and I just realised.  

 

It is a very entertaining prospect for neutrals but why should the season be kept alive for a team who may finish 10 points behind us in 3rd? It is not a fair system in any way in my opinion.

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Completely agree with you for once Trapper! The play offs are anything but a lottery, if we play our game we'll come through them, simple as that

 

Yes, and over the course of the season we have proved that we are better than every team below us, especially the 3 that currently occupy the other playoff spots, of which only 1 of them has beaten us (or even scored against us).

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